Antarctic E-commerce (002127): High growth of core categories GMV, focus on e-commerce channels continue to sink

Antarctic E-commerce (002127): High growth of core categories GMV, focus on e-commerce channels continue to sink

The event company disclosed its annual report and realized revenue of 33 in 2018.

530,000 yuan, an increase of 240 in ten years.

12%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 8.

86 ‰, an increase of 65 in ten years.

92%.

Basic income is 0.

36 yuan.

Investment points Multi-category and multi-platform development has been fruitful, and consolidation of time interconnection has promoted the growth rate: Overall, we believe that: (1) Time interconnection concurrency and schedules boost revenue, the time interconnection business gross margin has decreased, and we still need to pay attention to the original businessCaliber, the total gross profit of the original business in 2018 accounted for about 83%, and it will increase by 47% in the future; (2) In terms of categories, GMV, the three core categories of underwear, menswear and home textiles, continued to grow rapidly, and the growth rate of GMV for underwear products exceeded 60%(3) The expansion of categories reduces the incremental monetization rate, and the brand comprehensive service fee monetization rate is about 4.

4%, it is expected that the development of new categories or new brands will continue to reduce the monetization rate slightly; (4) the company’s high GMV growth in 2018 led to an increase in the average GMV of suppliers and the average GMV of dealers, and the scale advantage was further highlighted; (5)Low-tier cities, with higher e-commerce penetration rates, have narrowed the gap and are expected to continue to contribute to user growth and promote the rapid development of Antarctic e-commerce, which is positioned to be cost-effective.

The profit mainly comes from the modern service industry, and the overall performance growth rate is good: in terms of business, after the acquisition time is interconnected, the integrated service fee income of the brand only accounts for about 27% of the revenue, and the mobile Internet media delivery business accounts for 66%.
Due to the highest gross profit margin of Time Connect, the proportion of the original business’s gross profit is still over half.

The gross profit of brand comprehensive service fee reached 8.

500 million, accounting for 73% of the overall gross profit excluding goods sales.

Although the company’s revenue volume has expanded rapidly after the merger and acquisition of the company, the company’s profit growth still needs to pay attention to the original caliber business, especially the brand integrated service business.

In the past 18 years, the company’s modern service industry’s operating income has achieved a growth rate of about 45%, and its gross profit has achieved a relatively high growth rate of about 47%,杭州夜网 which has promoted the company’s performance to increase rapidly.

The GMV of each brand and platform has grown rapidly, and the core category GMV has continued to improve. In terms of brands, Antarctics still occupy the most important position, maintaining a GMV growth of over 60%, and most other brands have achieved GMV growth above 80%.

In terms of different platforms, the Alibaba platform still has the highest proportion of the company’s GMV, so the company achieved the highest growth rate on Pinduoduo platform.

In terms of categories, underwear, men’s clothing, and home textiles are the company’s core categories. GMV accounts for about 30%, 16%, and 15%. The three core categories, GMV, continue to grow rapidly. According to the category of Antarctic people and Cardile Crocodile in 2017,We predict that the 杭州桑拿网 company’s underwear, men’s clothing, and home textiles will achieve GMV growth of approximately 60%, 170%, and 50% in 2018. The core categories will continue to grow endogenously and epitaxially in a variety of categories, contributing to the company’s performance growth.

The expansion of categories lowered the monetization rate, and the monetization rate improved in the second half of the year: During the rapid expansion of multiple categories and multiple categories, the cultivation and support of suppliers to improve the monetization rate of the brand’s comprehensive service fee improved.

In the end, the company’s brand integrated service fee growth rate was slower than the overall platform GMV growth rate. The proportion of brand integrated service fee as a percentage of GMV continued to decline, accounting for more than 4.
.

4%, about 3 in the first half of the year.

9%, 4.

6%.

In the second half of the year, the company’s brand comprehensive service fee as a percentage of GMV rebounded, mainly because the company’s Antarctic brand was launched in the thermal underwear category, which has a higher influence and a higher monetization rate in this mature category.

In the second half of the year, sales of mature products accounted for a higher proportion, and the monetization rate rebounded.

Consolidation reduces the average profit margin and expense ratio: In terms of profitability, due to time-linked gross profit margin, net interest rate, and average price-to-price ratio, since the time of interconnection and consolidation at the end of 2017, the company’s average profit-rate expense ratio has shown a trend.

In 2018, the company’s gross profit margin was approximately 34.

5%, the period expense ratio totals 6.

3%, asset impairment losses accounted for about 0 of revenue.

At 6%, the final net margin is about 26.

5%.

In terms of inventory, since the company gradually began to split the sales of goods from 2016, the amount of the company’s inventory decreased significantly. In 2018, the company’s inventory continued to fall by 73% to 3.36 million yuan, and the proportion of revenue has replaced 0.

1%.

In terms of cash flow, time interconnection and consolidation have increased cash inflows from operating activities by more than two.

5 times, cash reduction in operating activities increased by more than 5.

The net cash flow from final operating activities increased by 2 times.

5%, basically unchanged from 2017.
The first-mover advantage casts the current scale effect of the e-commerce channel: For other apparel and apparel companies, the Antarctic e-commerce transformation line is more thorough, gradually accumulating in the development period of the e-commerce channel, and gains a first-mover advantage.
As of the end of 2018, the company had 866 service providers, 4,186 service dealers, and 5,535 online brand stores, which gradually formed the scale effect of e-commerce channels.

In 2018, the average GMV of suppliers increased by 24%, and the average GMV of dealers increased by about 5%.

Driven by the rapid growth of GMV, the scale effect of suppliers and the stable profit trend of distributors are sustainable.

Low-tier cities’ e-commerce penetration contribution growth: In 2018, driven by the sinking of e-commerce channels, low-tier cities contributed an increase in the number of major users.

Currently, the penetration rate of e-commerce in low-tier cities is 62%, and nearly 70% in higher-tier cities is 7.

With a difference of 1pc, there is room for increasing the penetration rate of e-commerce in low-tier cities.

According to the Ministry of Commerce’s Consumer Upgrade Action Plan, key tasks in 2019 include deepening the comprehensive demonstration of e-commerce in rural areas, allowing e-commerce companies to take root in rural markets.

Consumers in low-tier cities who prefer high-quality products are in line with Antarctic e-commerce price band positioning.

Low-tier cities are expected to continue to contribute to the increase in e-commerce channel users, or will continue to drive the rapid growth of GMV in Antarctic e-commerce.

Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s earnings from 2019 to 2021 will be 0.

50, 0.

64 and 0.

82 yuan.

Return on net assets were 17, respectively.

3%, 18.

2% and 18.

8%.

The current PE (2019E) is about 23 times, and the “Buy-B” recommendation is maintained.

Risk warning: fierce market competition may reduce the monetization rate and gross profit margin; there is uncertainty in category and brand expansion; the ability to control and control the quality of platform operations is challenged; there is a reduction plan for controlling shareholders and their concerted actors.