Dabeinong (002385): Performance continues to be under pressure in the breeding business or future prospects

Dabeinong (002385): Performance continues to be under pressure in the breeding business or future prospects

1H19 returns to mother’s net profit for ten years -67.

67%, performance is in line with the forecast Dabei Nongong announced 1H19 performance: 81 income in 1H19.

420,000 yuan, at least -10.

26%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

340,000 yuan, at least -67.

67%.

Revenue in the second quarter of 1940.

850,000 yuan, at least -8.

66%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

72 ppm, +194 per year due to a low base in the same period last year.

27%.

1H19 performance is in the forecast range (at least -55%?
-70%).

In 1H19, the company’s profitability declined, and its gross profit margin fell by -1.

2ppt to 17.

3%, net interest rate is -0 per second.

7ppt to 0.

4%, investment income is reduced by 0 every year.

88 ppm to -0.

6 million due to investment losses recognized in the breeding platform.

1H19 company performance continued to be under pressure: 1) Affected by the epidemic, the number of pigs raised decreased, and the income from feed business decreased by -11.

7%, gross margin constant -0.

3ppt, sales -6 per year.

1% to 199 maximum, of which pig feed is two years -8.

7% to 162 budget.

2) The 1H19 company increased the layout of pig breeding, and the number of pigs and breeding pigs on the pen was +26.

From 6% to 970,000 heads (including the shareholding platform), but the company currently overcomes pressure on complete cost control due to higher apportionment costs, upgrading of epidemic prevention facilities, personnel reserve costs, etc., and the average national pig price in 1H1914.

3 yuan / kg, which is lower than the company’s full cost, which reduces the pig breeding business.

Development trend The pig breeding business will be the focus of the future: the company leans on resources to develop the pig breeding business, and its goal is to produce 2 million heads in 2019 and 500 in 2020?
6 million heads, the company’s equity in this business is about 65%.

At the end of June the company already had 17.

100,000 sows in stock (including joint-stock companies, which can breed sows5.

490 thousand heads).

We believe that the company ‘s hog breeding layout is still at an early stage, and there are several directions worthy of attention in the future: first, pig prices are expected to rise, and we expect the company ‘s hog breeding business to enter the performance release period in 2H19, and the performance has the opportunity to improve;In the short term, the company’s full cost of breeding is not sufficient. We believe that whether the total cost can be reduced in the future will become a continuous consideration for its development. Third, the company’s existing breeding sow inventory distance from this year’s target (23+ million heads)There are still differences, and the epidemic situation is still uncertain. At present, the possibility of the company’s expansion rate being disturbed by the epidemic situation cannot be ruled out. We maintain a wait-and-see attitude on this.

On the whole, the company vigorously develops the pig breeding business. We believe that it is expected to bring performance 南京桑拿网 conversion opportunities in 2H19 and next year, but cost control and growth will be an important guarantee for plan availability in the future.

Earnings forecasts and estimates correspond to 31/20 times P / E ratios for 2019/2020.

We maintain our Neutral rating, but taking into account the pressure on interim results, we slightly lower our 2019 earnings forecast by -6.

7% to 6.
5.5 billion, and cut the target price by 5% to 5.

3 yuan, the target price corresponds to 35/22 times the 2019/2020 estimate, + 9% space.
Risks Pig prices and raw material prices have changed dramatically, the epidemic is at risk, and the development of breeding business is lower than expected.