Makihara (002714): Performance slightly exceeds market expected cost control and growth leads the industry
Benefiting from the increase in pig prices, the fourth quarter results exceeded market expectations.
The company released a 19-year performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 60%?
$ 6.4 billion, an annual increase of 1053%?
At 1130%, the growth in performance was mainly due to rising pig prices, and the performance slightly exceeded market expectations.
In the single quarter of 19Q4, the company achieved a net profit of approximately 46.
1.3 billion, an increase of about 199% from the previous month?
The cost control ability leads the industry, and it is estimated that the average profit of Q4 in a single quarter is about 2075 yuan.
In Q4, the company produced about 2.32 million live pigs, of which about 187 were for commercial fat pigs / pigs / sows.
10,000 heads; it is estimated that the average profit of pig heads is about 2075 yuan per head, which continues to lead the industry.
At the beginning of 2019, the company’s gradual production of commercial pigs was about 1025.
330,000 heads, with a ten-year average of 6.
9%; of which 867 were for commercial pigs / piglets / breeders.
710,000 heads, at least -14% / + 79% /-28.
6%; cumulative income is about 196.
610,000 yuan, an increase of about 48 in ten years.
Introduce capital to actively expand the production capacity of pigs.
According to the announcement, the company speeded up the commissioning of some idle sow farms in the early stage and reserved a large number of seeds for expansion in 2020.
At the same time, the company has cooperated with Huaneng Trust, SDIC, and other companies to significantly increase its capital strength.
As of the end of 2019, the company’s breeding sow inventory was 128.
320,000 heads, the reserve sow inventory is about 720,000 heads, and we expect the company to produce about 20 million heads in 2020.
Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating.
The company’s 南京夜网论坛 management level is leading in the industry, and the future production capacity will be elastically bonded, which is expected to fully benefit the high prosperity of the industry.
The company’s EPS is expected to be 2 in 2019-20.
63 yuan / share, a reasonable value of 112.
24 yuan / share, corresponding to about 8 times PE in 2020, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: pig price fluctuation risk: the unexpected decline in pig price will affect the company’s profit; epidemic risk: the breeding cycle will be expanded, if the epidemic situation is not prevented, food losses will occur.