Longji shares (601012) 2019 semi-annual results preview comment: Q2 profit exceeds expectations, record high single crystal high boom dividends will continue to be released

Longji shares (601012) 2019 semi-annual results preview comment: Q2 profit exceeds expectations, record high single crystal high boom dividends will continue to be released
Brief evaluation of performance The company issued an announcement of the 2019 semi-annual performance pre-increasing announcement, with an expected net profit of 19.61?20.910,000 yuan, 50% increase every year?60% is expected to deduct non-net profit 19.41?20.71 ppm, an increase of 55% per year?65%, exceeding market expectations.  The amount of operating analysis has increased, the price has been stable, and the cost has dropped, driving up the single quarter profit to a record high: measuring the company’s single quarter net profit in 2019Q213.5?14.80,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%?94%, an increase of 121% from Q1?142%, a record high.In the past few years, the company’s vigorous layout of overseas terminal markets (bank certification, channel construction, brand promotion, etc.) has achieved outstanding returns against the background of increasing demand in overseas markets this year. We have gradually increased the volume of the company’s Q2 modules to about 2GW.Q1 has increased by nearly 60% from the previous month. At the same time, due to the decline in the price of silicon materials and the company’s continued non-silicon costs, it is expected that the gross profit rate of Q2 will also increase significantly from Q1.  Single crystal high prosperity + increase in component market share dividends will continue to be released, supporting continued growth in performance: Looking forward to the second half and next year, the continuous release of monocrystalline PERC battery capacity and the polycrystalline capacity cost line as “marginal capacity”Under the combined effect of support formation, the transition of single crystal silicon wafers is expected to gradually maintain a high degree of prosperity.Although this kind of high-boom prevention will attract some new entrants to the industry, considering the relatively high technical barriers of single crystals and the company’s leading advantages in terms of cost levels, research and development capabilities, and 佛山桑拿网 expansion efficiency, we expect the company’s siliconThe film business maintains its ability to maintain an absolute leading market share while maintaining a high profit margin.  In terms of module business, this year is only the first year of the company ‘s overseas deployment of “thick accumulation”. The conversion of overseas warehouses and other channels has been further improved, the internal management efficiency has been improved, and the international market has increased due to the positive cycle effect brought by sales growth.The company’s share in the global photovoltaic module market continues to increase.At the same time, considering that the company’s module business will continue to need to purchase / process external cells from the outside in the future (that is, the capacity of the internal cell is less than the 成都桑拿网 amount of modules put in), the recent reduction in the price of monocrystalline cells may have a short-term impact on the company’s module business.Profitability brings additional contributions.  Profit adjustment and investment recommendations Based on the company’s latest operating conditions, we slightly raised to adjust the silicon wafer forecast volume forecast, slightly lowered the silicon and component business non-silicon cost forecast, and slightly reduced the gradual implantation of income distribution. The adjusted company 2019?21E net profit forecast is 51.2 (+ 7%), 64.1 (+ 7%), 77.8 (+ 5%) billion, corresponding to EPS of 1.41, 1.77, 2.15 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating, 6?The 12-month target price is correspondingly raised to 35 yuan (+ 6%), corresponding to 25x2019PE or 20x2020PE.  Risks suggest that the demand release of bidding projects is slower than expected; new entrants in the industry are expanding production faster than expected; the international trade environment is deteriorating.